Welcome to Opteon’s Property Pulse Check, our quarterly take on Australia’s evolving property markets. As we continue tracking commercial and residential conditions nationwide, this edition captures fresh insights for the first quarter of 2026 from our valuation experts, revealing where markets are holding steady, gaining pace, or beginning to cool. It’s a succinct snapshot of buyer and seller sentiment across the country.
Tracking the rhythm of Australia's Property Markets
Our quarterly Pulse Check offers a quick read on the health of Australia’s property markets, using a familiar metaphor: the heartbeat. Just like a pulse can signal calm, exertion, or fatigue, market conditions vary by region and cycle. We’ve asked our experts to assess the rhythm of their local markets this quarter: whether it’s resting, elevated, or slowing. Their insights provide a timely snapshot of buyer and seller sentiment, helping you stay in step with the changing pace of the property landscape.
Resting Pulse – The market is steady and well-balanced, ticking along at a healthy pace.
Elevated Pulse – Activity is ramping up, with strong demand pushing the market into growth mode.
Slow Pulse – Momentum is easing as the market takes a breather after a busy run.
Here’s what our experts are seeing on the ground this quarter:
The Australian retail sector continues to deliver solid performance, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, which is tracking 4.6% above the same period last year, strong population growth and a sustained undersupply of retail floorspace. These structural supports continue to offset near term volatility in consumer confidence.
Notwithstanding these positives, consumer sentiment weakened sharply in April, falling to 80.1, a 2.5 year low, from 91.6 in March 2026, reflecting renewed cost of living pressures. Elevated construction costs - now facing further escalation due to Middle East related disruptions - remain a significant constraint on new retail development, reinforcing supply tightness across most formats.
Retail property continues to stand out as a preferred asset class, attracting heightened investor interest supported by low vacancy rates, solid moving annual turnover (MAT), consistent rental growth, and modest yield compression across shopping centre and large format retail assets. While transaction volumes remain below the elevated levels recorded in 2025, pricing metrics remain firm, underscoring the sector’s defensive positioning.
"Following a period of stabilisation during mid to late 2025, the market has more recently been impacted by rate hikes and geopolitical tensions. Buyers remain selective, with the fewer participants targeting offices with strong lease covenants and longer-term WALEs, along with a greater focus on modern buildings with strong ESG credentials. Values have remained somewhat stagnant, highlighting broader market uncertainty and reduced confidence. Sales volumes remain low in comparison with the stronger office market periods which prevailed prior to the pandemic. Supply is tightening, with fewer new buildings, particularly noting continuing high construction costs."
"Australia’s industrial property sector remains one of the strongest standard commercial asset classes heading into 2026, underpinned by structural demand from e-commerce, logistics, and population growth. Vacancy is rising modestly in markets like Sydney and Melbourne but remains structurally low, with development constraints limiting long-term supply. Investment activity appears to be focusing on prime and value-add opportunities, supported by pricing below replacement cost, however geopolitical uncertainty and elevated interest rates are tempering capital flows and development feasibility. Overall, yields are expected to gradually tighten as the sector transitions toward a more balanced, income-driven return profile."
"Prices are still rising but momentum is clearly cooling, with growth slowing to ~2.1% for the quarter and sentiment becoming cautious rather than bullish. The two‑speed market has become shaper with Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide accelerating strongly while Sydney and Melbourne have tipped into mild declines; lower‑priced and regional markets continue to outperform as affordability constraints bite at the top end."
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George Garagounis 0427 786 918
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New South Wales
In February, higher interest rates began to weigh more heavily on buyer confidence, leading to longer selling times, increased choice, and improved negotiating leverage for purchasers. By March, conditions had levelled out, with price growth stalling and some pockets, particularly across Sydney, recording minor price pullbacks and more sales occurring below vendor expectations.
Overall, the quarter reflected a gentle cooling rather than a downturn, with metropolitan NSW softening more than regional markets, where affordability and lifestyle demand continued to underpin stronger relative performance.
Australian Capital Territory Throughout the third quarter of 2026, the ACT property market continued to soften, settling into a more buyer‑friendly environment. Momentum eased as higher interest rates and cost‑of‑living pressures constrained borrowing capacity and tempered buyer confidence. Sales activity slowed, days on market lengthened, and pricing expectations became more realistic, with an increasing number of transactions occurring below initial asking levels.
While price movements were generally flat to slightly negative across much of Canberra, the market remained relatively resilient due to ongoing public‑sector employment stability and low levels of distressed selling. Overall, the quarter reflected a period of consolidation rather than decline, with cautious sentiment defining buyer and seller behaviour. |
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Regional Director 0407 332 887 |
South Australia Adelaide values continued their upward trajectory in March in 2026 with both houses and units recording growth of approximately 3.7% for houses and 3.2% for units. The median house price in metropolitan Adelaide has increased to reached around $998,933. Units also continued to record positive gains with a median unit price of $592,000. Overall dwelling and unit values have been bolstered by limited supply and strong demand.
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State Director 0457 456 355 |
Queensland Brisbane’s median house price is approximately $1.2 million, with unit values around $865,000, with both segments recording annual growth of more than 10% to April. Similar rates of growth have been observed on the Gold Coast, while the Sunshine Coast has tracked slightly below these levels over the past 12 months.
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State Director 0417 449 344 |
Western Australia Perth's residential dwelling values rose 2.5% in March 2026, 7.3% in the March quarter and 24.3% in the past 12 months. With supply at all time lows (total listings down 29%; new listings down 13.9% from the same time last year) and strong demand, Perth is experiencing short sale periods of 9 days and low vendor discounting. Perth dwelling prices are at a record high and rental rates have increased 6.7% in the past 12 months. Regional WA dwelling values are 20.4% higher in the past 12 months with listed stock levels falling (total listings down 34.5%; new listings down 13.9%) and rental values up 8.9% over the last 12 months. Regional locations such as the Pilbara (Karratha) are performing strongly by virtue of short supply and positive sentiment around major infrastructure projects. Broome is also showing positive growth due to lifestyle demand, limited supply, government investment and seasonal tourism.
Northern Territory Darwin's residential dwelling values rose 1.6% in March 2026, 3.4% over the quarter and 19.7% in the past 12 months. Supply of listed stock has reduced as Darwin has seen a significant uplift in buyer activity. Darwin's increase in dwelling prices can be attributed to it's relative affordability, increasing rents (up 9.2% in 12 months), strong rental yield (6.0% higher in 12 months) and positive sentiment around government infrastructure projects, mining and Defence related spending. Regional NT dwelling values are 2.7% higher in the past 12 months with listed stock levels steady and rental value up 5.1% over the last 12 months. Both Darwin and Regional NT median days on market remain more protracted than other States / Territories showing 47 days and 98 days respectively. |
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State Director 0433 155 774 |
Victoria From January to March 2026, the Victorian property market shifted from stable conditions into a softer, more buyer-friendly phase. January began relatively steady, though underlying signs of oversupply and slowing momentum were already emerging.
By February, rising interest rates significantly reduced buyer confidence, increased listings, and gave purchasers more negotiating power. In March, the market flattened, with prices holding steady or dipping slightly and many properties selling below asking price.
Overall, the quarter saw a modest decline in Melbourne values while regional Victoria performed more strongly, reflecting continued demand for more affordable areas. The result was not a crash, but a clear cooling trend driven mainly by higher borrowing costs and cautious buyer sentiment. |
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Regional Director 0405 715 580 |
Tasmania Hobart’s housing market is currently stable and in a consolidation phase following several years of adjustment. Dwelling values have resumed moderate growth, increasing 7.8% over the past year and around 0.8% over the March quarter, although prices remain below the peak reached in 2022, reinforcing that this is a recovery rather than a boom phase.
Supply remains relatively tight, which is helping to underpin values, but buyer behaviour is cautious and price‑sensitive as higher interest rates and affordability pressures persist. Well‑located, realistically priced homes continue to attract solid demand, while over‑ambitious pricing is being challenged. Overall, Hobart sits in a balanced position, offering resilience and lower volatility compared with many mainland capitals, with gradual momentum building rather than rapid acceleration. |
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