Three months on from the federal budget's changes to capital gains tax (CGT) and negative gearing, the effects are starting to show up in the data and in the stories our valuers are hearing on the ground.
In Episode 2 of The Budget Decoded, Opteon's Managing Director for Australia–New Zealand, Scott Chapman, sits down with National Director of Residential, Michael McNulty, to unpack what's changed for property investors since the rules passed through Parliament, and what the early signals across different markets are telling us.
With the CGT and negative gearing changes now through Parliament, investors have more clarity than they've had in months. As McNulty explains, that clarity is exactly what's needed to plan properly: understanding your structure, your exposure, and what the changes mean for your specific situation, rather than making decisions based on assumption.
It's also a reminder that markets don't move as one. As McNulty puts it, there are "markets within markets within markets" meaning a one-size-fits-all approach to property decisions rarely holds up under scrutiny.
One of the clearest shifts since the budget is a cooling in investor activity. In hot markets, fear of missing out can carry an average property in an average location to a strong return. In calmer markets, that cushion disappears.
That means investors need to do more legwork: understanding cashflow risk and vacancy risk, and getting a genuine read on the property and its market not just the headline figures. It also means bringing in the right experts earlier, from valuers and building inspectors to local agents who understand the demographics and demand drivers of an area.
The upside of a slower market is time. With longer selling timeframes, significant transaction costs (stamp duty in particular), and the realities of notice periods and existing leases, property is not a liquid asset. A calmer market gives investors the breathing room to make a considered, long-term decision rather than a rushed one.
The episode walks through several real examples that illustrate just how differently markets are behaving since the budget changes took effect on 12 May:
At the same time, Sydney and Melbourne have generally remained more subdued, while South Australia, Queensland and WA have shown greater strength, a reminder that national headlines rarely reflect what's happening at a local level.
Opteon's own data reflects this shift too: mortgage-related volumes (refinances and purchases) are down across most metro markets, particularly on the East Coast, while regional volumes are holding steady. At the same time, requests for non-mortgage work, pre-purchase advice, pre-sale advice and financial reporting are up significantly since 12 May, as investors and owners seek clarity before making a move.
Automated valuation models (AVMs) and median price data are useful tools for identifying high-level trends and general market direction. But as McNulty explains, they aren't reliable enough to base a tax planning decision on.
A recent example from Cairns makes the point clearly: a property sold well above the median growth rate reported for its area. In the same suburb, in the same period, one property recorded a 25% increase in value while another was down 5%. The average told only part of the story.
Getting a genuine picture requires speaking with agents and owners, inspecting properties directly, and understanding what's driving demand street by street, the kind of on-the-ground insight that only a qualified, local valuer can provide.
From 1 July 2027, changes to the tax system will require property owners to have an assessment of their asset for CGT purposes. But McNulty's advice is not to wait until then.
Understanding what your property is worth today and what's happening in its specific markets, puts you in a position to make an informed decision, whether that's holding, selling, renting or restructuring. In markets where investor activity has shifted quickly, waiting to understand your position can mean missing the window to act on it.
Q: What has changed for property investors since the federal budget?
A: The CGT and negative gearing changes have now passed through Parliament, giving investors clearer rules to plan around. While clarity has improved, the changes have also triggered a noticeable pullback in investor demand in several markets, particularly since 12 May.
Q: Is it a good time to invest in a calmer property market?
A: A calmer market can still present good opportunities, but it requires more research than a booming market. Investors need to understand cashflow risk, vacancy risk and the specific property and market dynamics, and should engage experts such as valuers, building inspectors and local agents before making a decision.
Q: Why have markets like Alkimos (WA), Mackay (QLD) and Logan (QLD) seen demand pull back?
A: These markets experienced strong, often investor-driven growth over recent years. Since the budget changes took effect on 12 May, investor demand in each of these areas has pulled back sharply — in some cases by an estimated 30–40% as investors reassess their position.
Q: Can I rely on an AVM or median price data to value my property for tax purposes?
A: AVMs and median data are useful for spotting general trends, but they can mask significant differences between individual properties in the same suburb. For tax planning purposes, a formal valuation from a qualified, local valuer gives a far more reliable and defensible result.
Q: Why should I get a valuation now rather than waiting until 1 July 2027?
A: From 1 July 2027, property owners will be required to have an assessment of their property for tax purposes. Getting a valuation earlier gives you a clear, current picture of your asset and the market it sits in, so you can make informed decisions about holding, selling or restructuring well ahead of that date.
Q: What is Opteon seeing across different client segments since the budget changes?
A: Mortgage-related volumes such as refinances and purchases have fallen in most metro markets, particularly on the East Coast, while regional volumes have held relatively steady. Meanwhile, requests for non-mortgage advisory work including pre-purchase advice and financial reporting have increased significantly since 12 May, as clients seek clarity on where they stand.