Confidence is the issue
Darren Curtis has worked at the top end of Sydney’s market since 2006. His read is clear: this is a market lacking confidence. Fewer vendors are willing to test the market, which cuts supply. Scarcity, the thing holding values up, is a product of the same uncertainty suppressing demand.
The market is also splitting. Core stock: north-facing, waterfront, prime positions, is still generating competition. Further out, or for compromised assets, inquiry is thinner and selling periods are longer. That divergence matters for how we read and weight comparable sales evidence.
“The more money you have to spend, the less you have to choose from.”
— Darren Curtis, Forbes Global Properties
Don’t cut the price — force the offer
Darren’s pricing strategy is counterintuitive and directly relevant to how valuers read market evidence. Rather than reducing an asking price to attract buyers, he holds the headline and pushes for offers at that level. His reasoning: once a property starts cutting, buyers wait for the next cut.
"If you start reducing your asking prices, you’re actually rewarding buyers for waiting." For valuers, understanding the agent strategy behind price adjustments and time on market makes for a more accurate opinion of value. A reduction isn’t always a distressed sale, sometimes it’s a negotiating signal.
A structural shift in who’s buying
The most significant change Darren describes is structural: mainland Chinese buyers, who accounted for over $30 billion in Australian property transactions a decade ago, now represent around $1 billion. The significant investor visa was wound back in July 2024, removing a buyer cohort that had been active across the upper North Shore and eastern suburbs for over a decade.
The upper North Shore, historically driven by proximity to selective schools. has felt this most. For valuers, it means historical comparables from 2022–23 need careful weighting. That buyer pool no longer exists in the same form, and applying those figures without adjustment risks overstating value in today’s market.
The gap is gradually being filled by domestic buyers, Pimble recently reset its record to just under $16 million to an Australian buyer — but the transition takes time.
Gabriel Carreno is Director – Residential Prestige NSW at Opteon, specialising in high-value residential valuations across Sydney and key prestige markets nationally.
Darren Curtis — Director, Forbes Global Properties. One of Sydney’s most prominent prestige agents, working at the top end of the market since 2006.