Welcome to Opteon’s Property Pulse Check, our quarterly take on Australia’s evolving property markets. As we continue tracking commercial and residential conditions nationwide, this edition captures fresh insights for the first quarter of 2026 from our valuation experts, revealing where markets are holding steady, gaining pace, or beginning to cool. It’s a succinct snapshot of buyer and seller sentiment across the country.
Tracking the rhythm of Australia's Property Markets
Our quarterly Pulse Check offers a quick read on the health of Australia’s property markets, using a familiar metaphor: the heartbeat. Just like a pulse can signal calm, exertion, or fatigue, market conditions vary by region and cycle. We’ve asked our experts to assess the rhythm of their local markets this quarter: whether it’s resting, elevated, or slowing. Their insights provide a timely snapshot of buyer and seller sentiment, helping you stay in step with the changing pace of the property landscape.
Resting Pulse – The market is steady and well-balanced, ticking along at a healthy pace.
Elevated Pulse – Activity is ramping up, with strong demand pushing the market into growth mode.
Slow Pulse – Momentum is easing as the market takes a breather after a busy run.
Here’s what our experts are seeing on the ground this quarter:
The Australian retail sector continues to deliver solid performance, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, which is tracking 5.5% above the same period last year, strong population growth and a sustained undersupply of retail floorspace. Continued upward presssure on construction costs widen the delta between rent and cost to build. These structural supports continue to offset near term volatility in consumer confidence. Modest rental growth is expected through 2026 with positive re-leasing spreads also expected.
Notwithstanding these positives, consumer sentiment weakened sharply in April, falling to 80.1, a 2.5 year low, from 91.6 in March 2026, reflecting renewed cost of living pressures. Elevated construction costs—now facing further escalation due to Middle East related disruptions—remain a significant constraint on new retail development, reinforcing supply tightness across most formats.
Retail property continues to stand out as a preferred asset class, attracting heightened investor interest supported by low vacancy rates, solid moving annual turnover (MAT), consistent rental growth, and modest yield compression across shopping centre and large format retail assets. While transaction volumes remain below the elevated levels recorded in 2025, pricing metrics remain firm, underscoring the sector’s defensive positioning.
Australia's office market remains challenged, following a prolonged period of adjustment, although performance continues to vary significantly between premium and secondary assets. Improving investor confidence, supported by more stable pricing and gradually strengthening occupier demand, is contributing to a more positive outlook. Despite this, vacancy rates remain elevated in many CBD locations, particularly among older and lower-grade buildings. The sector continues to be influenced by evolving workplace strategies, growing sustainability expectations and ongoing tenant preference for high-quality, well-located office accommodation. Values have remained somewhat stagnant, highlighting broader market uncertainty and reduced confidence. Sales volumes remain low in comparison with the stronger office market periods which prevailed prior to the pandemic. Supply is tightening, with fewer new buildings, particularly noting continuing high construction costs.
Across Australia, the industrial property market remained resilient throughout the first half of 2026, supported by healthy occupier demand, low vacancy rates and strong long-term fundamentals. Demand from logistics, transport, manufacturing and e-commerce businesses continued to underpin leasing activity, although tenants became more selective and rental growth moderated from the levels seen in recent years. New supply remained elevated, particularly in major east coast markets, helping to ease some supply constraints while vacancies generally stayed below historical averages. Development activity continued however new project commencements slowed in response to higher construction costs, financing expenses and a more measured leasing environment. Investment activity strengthened as pricing stabilised and prime yields remained broadly steady, with investors continuing to favour high-quality industrial and logistics assets. Overall, the Australian industrial market has transitioned to a more balanced phase, supported by structural demand drivers including population growth, supply chain investment and the ongoing expansion of the logistics sector.
The June quarter marked a clear turning point in Australia’s housing market. While annual growth rates remain strong across many markets, quarterly momentum has slowed sharply, with Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra now recording value declines and Adelaide flattening after a prolonged upswing. In contrast, Perth, Darwin, Tasmania and many regional markets continue to grow, although even these markets are showing signs of moderating as supply rises and buyer conditions become more balanced.
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George Garagounis 0427 786 918
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New South Wales
Australian Capital Territory April to July 2026, the ACT market followed a milder version of NSW's downturn. Values held up better through April on positive annual growth, but May brought a clear turn as CGT-related tax changes weighed on investor demand and confidence. By June, monthly falls had widened, quarterly declines set in, and auction clearance rates dropped to their softest level of the cycle. Houses continued to outperform units, and unlike Sydney, Canberra's public-sector employment base and undersupply kept the correction shallower, though rising stock and longer selling times gave buyers clearly improved negotiating power heading into July. |
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Regional Director 0407 332 887 |
South Australia Adelaide’s residential property market has slowed quickly, with dwelling values recording no growth in June 2026, 1.3% growth over the June quarter, and 11.6% growth over the year. The slowdown appears to be partly driven by changes to CGT-related policies, which have prompted a significant number of investors to exit the property market. Sales volumes were 7% higher than the same time last year, while days on market increased from 28 to 34 days. Higher available stock and a smaller purchaser pool have contributed to increased vendor discounting, moving to -3.8% compared with -3.4% in the June quarter of 2025. Adelaide’s rental market remains steady, with 4.8% annual rental growth and yields around 3.5%. Regional SA outperformed Adelaide metropolitan markets, with the June 2026 quarter showing 1.6% growth and annual growth of 11.4%. Regional sales were up 5.9% over the year, while days on market increased from 41 to 46 days. The Regional SA rental market remains strong, with annual rental growth of 6% and yields around 4.4%. While investor enquiry has slowed in Regional SA, some regional towns, including Whyalla and Port Augusta, continue to attract investor demand due to strong yields. |
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State Director 0457 456 355 |
Queensland Over the past three months, the South East Queensland residential property market has remained resilient, although conditions have become more balanced as growth momentum continues to moderate. While prices have generally held firm, leading indicators—particularly longer days on market and increased vendor discounting—suggest the market is entering the early stages of softening. Buyers are exercising greater caution amid recent Federal Government policy changes affecting investors, ongoing cost-of-living pressures, geopolitical uncertainty and broader economic concerns. These factors have reduced urgency, particularly within the entry-level market, where first home buyers and investors are most active. Anecdotally, local agents report this segment has already experienced a noticeable decline in enquiry and competition following the policy changes. Despite these headwinds, underlying market fundamentals remain supportive, including constrained housing supply and continued population growth. Overall, the SEQ residential market remains stable, but activity has slowed, with more measured buyer behaviour and moderating price growth expected in the near term. |
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State Director 0417 449 344 |
Western Australia Perth’s residential property market continues to demonstrate strong performance, with dwelling values increasing 0.7% in June, 2.0% over the June quarter, and 23.9% over the past 12 months, taking values to record highs. While market activity has moderated, with sales volumes down 13.8% over the year, conditions remain steady. The supply of listed properties has increased by 16.7%, and the median time taken to sell a home has risen to 14 days. However, this remains consistent with the same period last year, indicating ongoing buyer demand. Increased housing supply has also resulted in slightly higher vendor discounting, with sellers negotiating an average of -3.4%, compared to -3.0% in the June quarter of 2025.
Northern Territory Darwin’s residential market continues to strengthen, with dwelling values increasing 1.4% in June 2026, 5.0% over the quarter, and 19.8% over the past 12 months. While the supply of listed properties has remained steady, buyer demand has surged, driving sales volumes 17.8% higher over the year to June 2026. |
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Regional Director 0405 715 580 |
Victoria Victoria's housing market remains mixed, with Melbourne continuing to soften while regional markets show greater resilience. Melbourne's residential dwelling values declined 0.9% in June, fell 2.6% over the June quarter and are down 0.9% over the past 12 months. Total listed stock increased 17.4% year-on-year, while median days on market rose to 36 days from 34 days a year earlier. The increase in available stock and softer buyer demand has contributed to higher vendor discounting, with the median discount widening to -3.5%. Melbourne dwelling values remain 4.0% below their March 2022 peak, although sales volumes were 3.9% higher than a year ago and rental rates increased 4.8% over the past 12 months. Regional Victoria continues to outperform Melbourne, with dwelling values increasing 0.6% over the June quarter and 7.1% over the past 12 months. Sales activity remains strong, with transaction volumes up 25.1% year-on-year. Total advertised stock levels are 3.0% lower than a year ago, indicating relatively tighter market conditions compared with Melbourne. Rental values increased 4.0% over the past 12 months, while gross rental yields remain comparatively attractive at 4.2%. With dwelling values continuing to rise, sales activity strengthening and listing levels remaining constrained, many regional Victorian centres continue to be supported by affordability advantages, lifestyle appeal and sustained population growth relative to the capital city market. Tasmania Tasmania's housing market continues to show steady growth, with Hobart's residential dwelling values rising 0.6% in June, 1.4% over the June quarter and 9.3% over the past 12 months. While values remain below the market peak, Hobart is now just 0.7% below the record high reached in March 2022. Total listed stock levels are 24.4% lower than a year ago, highlighting ongoing supply constraints, while median days on market increased slightly to 31 days from 30 days a year earlier. Vendor discounting has widened to -3.8%, reflecting more balanced market conditions and greater buyer negotiation compared to last year. Rental rates have increased 8.6% over the past 12 months, supported by tight vacancy conditions and limited housing supply. Regional Tasmania continues to perform strongly, with dwelling values increasing 13.0% over the past 12 months, outpacing Hobart's annual growth. Sales activity remains robust, with transaction volumes up 9.3% year-on-year, while total advertised listings are 27.1% lower than a year ago, indicating exceptionally tight supply conditions. Rental values have risen 10.1% over the past 12 months and gross rental yields remain attractive at 4.4%. Regional centres continue to benefit from lifestyle appeal, affordability relative to mainland markets, and limited housing stock, providing ongoing support for both capital growth and rental market performance. |
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