Australia Insights | Opteon

January 2026 Property Pulse Check

Written by Opteon Australia | Feb 10, 2026 10:50:40 PM

Welcome to the first 2026 edition of Opteon’s Property Pulse Check, our quarterly take on Australia’s evolving property markets. As we continue tracking commercial and residential conditions nationwide, this edition captures fresh insights from our valuation experts, revealing where markets are holding steady, gaining pace, or beginning to cool. It’s a succinct snapshot of buyer and seller sentiment across the country.

Tracking the rhythm of Australia's Property Markets

Our quarterly Pulse Check offers a quick read on the health of Australia’s property markets, using a familiar metaphor: the heartbeat. Just like a pulse can signal calm, exertion, or fatigue, market conditions vary by region and cycle. We’ve asked our experts to assess the rhythm of their local markets this quarter: whether it’s resting, elevated, or slowing. Their insights provide a timely snapshot of buyer and seller sentiment, helping you stay in step with the changing pace of the property landscape. 

  • Resting Pulse – The market is steady and well-balanced, ticking along at a healthy pace.

  • Elevated Pulse – Activity is ramping up, with strong demand pushing the market into growth mode.

  • Slow Pulse – Momentum is easing as the market takes a breather after a busy run.

Here’s what our experts are seeing on the ground this quarter:

Commercial

Retail

Dan Hill, National Director Specialist Real Estate & Residential Development 

"The retail sector continues to demonstrate strong performance across Australia, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, robust population growth, and a persistent undersupply of retail floorspace. Elevated construction costs have delayed new developments, further tightening supply. Retail remains a standout asset class, attracting heightened investor interest due to low vacancy rates, solid moving annual turnover (MAT), consistent rental growth, and slightly compressed - yields across shopping centres and large format retail (LFR) assets. Transaction volumes for 2025 were close to record levels albeit with fluctuating transaction levels across states."

Office

Sam Lipshut, Head of Middle Markets & Portfolio 

"The market seems to have stabilised during mid to late 2025, following a period of decline/price adjustment. Buyers remain selective, with the fewer participants targeting offices with strong lease covenants and longer term WALEs, along with a greater focus on modern buildings with strong ESG credentials.

Values have remained somewhat stagnant, highlighting broader market uncertainty and persistently elevated interest rates. Sales volumes remain low in comparison with the stronger office market periods which prevailed prior to the pandemic. Supply is tightening, with fewer new buildings, particularly noting continuing high construction costs."

Industrial

Paul Bungate - Director Middle Markets & Advisory 

"Australia’s industrial property market remains one of the strongest commercial real estate sectors, underpinned by low vacancy, constrained land supply and resilient occupier demand. National vacancy has risen slightly as new developments have completed, but it remains well below long-term levels, particularly in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, indicating ongoing undersupply.

Industrial assets continue to attract strong domestic and offshore capital, supported by income security, rental growth prospects and long-term fundamentals tied to e-commerce, logistics and supply-chain resilience."

 

Residential

Michael McNulty, National Director, Residential Valuation Operations

"National dwelling values climbed 2.9% in FY26 Q2 (December quarter), with momentum propelled by scarce listings and earlier rate cuts that kept buyer demand firm. 

Standout markets included Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide (again), where strong demand and ultra‑tight stock continued to amplify quarterly gains, while Sydney and Melbourne delivered softer advances as higher price points (Sydney) met serviceability limits, and higher supply and higher taxes (Melbourne) continue to subdue price growth. 

Lower‑priced segments led activity across several capitals and regional areas, reflecting buyers pivoting toward affordability and constrained supply at the entry level. 

December’s +0.7% month‑on‑month print did signal some cooling into year‑end, mainly due to affordability ceilings and the increased probability of multiple interest rate rises in early 2026 and a 'higher for longer' rate path."

George Garagounis
State Director

0427 786 918

 

 

New South Wales
NSW dwelling values recorded steady growth over the October–December period, with Sydney rising 0.8% for the quarter and 5.8% annually, reflecting a market that is stabilising rather than accelerating. Conditions remain supported by tight stock levels, with listings sitting slightly below average and continuing to underpin values despite softer momentum. Affordability pressures are shaping buyer behaviour, with demand strongest across lower to mid price points, consistent with broader national trends where affordable segments are showing firmer competition.

 

Values remain just 0.1% below Sydney’s recent peak, highlighting a market that is holding its ground rather than entering a strong upswing. Rental conditions continue to lend support, though Sydney’s 3.0% gross yield reflects the ongoing strain on investor returns. Looking ahead, any further gains are expected to be gradual, with restrictive borrowing capacity likely to temper demand while low supply keeps a firm floor under prices. 

 

Australian Capital Territory

ACT dwelling values rose 2.2% over the October–December quarter, lifting annual growth to 4.2%, signaling a market that is improving steadily but without the momentum seen in several mid sized capitals. Conditions remain supported by tight supply and consistent buyer demand, though affordability pressures and higher borrowing costs continue to moderate value growth. The market is showing signs of renewed traction, with house values driving the quarterly rise and providing stability across the broader ACT segment.


Despite these gains, price growth remains contained, reflecting a measured recovery rather than a strong upswing. Buyer activity is strongest in more affordable brackets, where limited stock continues to sustain competition and reasonably efficient selling times. Rental conditions also remain a key support, with steady rental demand and solid yields helping maintain investor engagement. Looking ahead, further gains are expected to be gradual, with affordability challenges and restrictive interest rates tempering demand while constrained supply continues to provide underlying support.

Simon Pascoe

Regional Director

0407 332 887

South Australia
By the 2025 December quarter, the momentum in the Adelaide residential market carried on. The median house price in metropolitan Adelaide reached around $925,000, up about $50,000 compared with the September quarter. Units also continued to record positive gains. Overall dwelling values have been bolstered by limited supply and strong demand. 


On an annual basis, Adelaide’s market displayed solid growth, with house and unit prices up around 11–13% year-on-year by December — among the higher capital city rates in Australia. Quarterly growth remained positive, albeit with some signs of moderation in the pace of gains compared with earlier in 2025. 


Throughout the quarter, listing volumes stayed relatively tight, keeping pressure on prices despite higher values. Buyers continued to compete strongly for well-priced stock, particularly in family-oriented and more affordable suburbs, and Adelaide’s relatively strong affordability compared with Sydney and Melbourne continued to support interstate demand. 


Overall, the Oct–Dec 2025 period saw Adelaide’s residential market continuing a multi-quarter growth run with strong annual gains, rising median prices (with houses approaching the $1 million mark in some measures) and persistent buyer competition entering 2026.

Matthew Jobson

State Director

0457 456 355

Queensland

Brisbane continues to lead performance in South East Queensland, recording double‑digit capital growth across both houses and units, driven largely by the tight supply of properties available for sale. Across the wider SEQ region, markets remain resilient, with price growth underpinned by strong lifestyle appeal and continued interstate migration.

 

Time on market has held steady over the past 12 months at approximately 20–25 days, reflecting consistent buyer demand. Auction conditions remain robust, with second‑quarter FY25/26 clearance rates sitting around 70–77% across greater Brisbane, while rental vacancy rates below 1% in metropolitan areas point to strong yields and ongoing upward pressure on rents.

Ryan Sargant

State Director

0417 449 344

Western Australia

Perth's residential dwelling values rose 1.9% in December 2025, 7.6% in the December quarter and 15.9% in the past 12 months. With supply at all time lows and strong demand, Perth is experiencing short sale periods of 9 days and low vendor discounting. Perth dwelling prices are at a record high and rental rates have increased 5.9% in  the past 12 months. Regional WA dwelling value is 16.1% higher in the past 12 months with listed stock levels falling and rental values up 10.1% over the last 12 months. Regional locations such as the Pilbara (Karratha) are performing strongly by virtue of short supply and positive sentiment around major infrastructure projects.

 

Northern Territory

Darwin's residential dwelling values rose 1.6% in December, 5.4% over the  quarter and 18.9% in the past 12 months. Supply of listed stock has reduced as Darwin has seen a significant uplift in buyer activity. Darwin's increase in dwelling prices can be attributed to it's relative affordability,  increasing rents (up 8.2% in 12 months), strong rental yield (6.2% higher in 12 months) and positive sentiment around government infrastructure projects, mining and defence related spending.

 

Regional NT dwelling values are 3.5% higher in the past 12 months with listed stock levels steady and rental value up 3.5% over the last 12 months. Both Darwin and Regional NT median days on market remain more protracted than other states / territories showing 35 days and 101 days respectively.

Nello Noto

State Director

0433 155 774

Victoria

From October to December 2025, Victoria’s residential property market showed broadening signs of recovery, with both price growth and buyer activity strengthening compared with earlier in the year. In October, the median house price in Melbourne was around $936,000, up 1.7% over the previous three months and 2.3% year-on-year, while median unit prices sat near $635,000, posting roughly 1.3% quarterly growth. In regional Victoria, houses and units also climbed, with regional house prices around $620,000 and units around $429,000, each up over the quarter and year.

By November, median values continued to lift: Melbourne house prices reached about $945,000, 2.7% higher over the quarter and 3.1% higher annually, and units hit $640,000, their highest in nearly three years. Regional Victoria also recorded stronger gains, with regional house prices near $625,000 (up ~2.5% quarterly and 4.2% annually) and units around $433,000.

Over the full December quarter, data shows that Melbourne’s median house price climbed roughly 2.9% to around $1.11 million — a new multi-year high — while units increased about 3.8% to approximately $601,000, again marking the strongest quarterly lifts in several years and extending a multi-quarter growth streak.

Overall, property values across Victoria rose steadily through Q4 2025, with houses and units both recording positive quarterly and annual growth, faster sales times and elevated competition for well-priced stock. The strength in unit price growth also highlights demand shifting toward more affordable housing types amid competitive market dynamics.

Damien Stone

Regional Director

0405 715 580

Tasmania

Hobart dwelling values increased 0.9% over the December quarter, lifting annual growth to 6.8% and pointing to a market that is regaining traction, albeit at a slower pace than many mainland capitals. Conditions remain supported by restricted stock levels and steady buyer demand, though borrowing capacity limits continue to restrain stronger price momentum.

 

Values are still 5.4% below the March 2022 peak, reinforcing that the recovery phase is measured rather than robust. Buyer activity continues to gravitate toward more affordable segments, where limited supply is sustaining competition and relatively swift selling times. Rental conditions remain a key support, with solid rent growth and comparatively attractive yields helping maintain investor interest.

 

Looking ahead, further gains are likely to be gradual, as affordability pressures and expectations that interest rates will remain restrictive for some time temper demand, even as tight supply provides an underlying floor to values.

 

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