Robert Baird
Regional Manager
At the start of the pandemic the median family home price in Polk County was $209,000 and by early 2022 the median price was $320,000, which is 53.11% increase. To put this in perspective, the median price increased was 8.33% from 2018 to 2019. So, during the COVID real estate boom home prices surged at historic levels. So, what does home affordability look like for families in Polk County?
Since the pandemic eased, Polk County’s housing market has been experiencing a period of transition. From May 2024 to May 2025, closed sales dropped by almost 10%, and the median sale price dipped by just over 2%. Homes are now selling at 95.9% of their original list price, and it’s taking longer to go under contract currently 48 days on average. Inventory is also up with more homes on the market and a housing supply of 5.1 months. These are all signs of a cooling real estate market that’s leaning more in favor of buyers. However, can the buyers afford the homes?
Currently, the median price for a single-family home is $325,000. The median family income is $63,644. With 30 year mortgage rates at about 6.76% and assuming a 5% down payment, a typical family could qualify for a mortgage of roughly $250,800. That estimate is based on a 36% debt-to-income ratio and includes property taxes and insurance.
That leaves an affordability gap of about $74,200 between what the average family can afford and what the average home costs. In short, the median priced home is out of reach for the median-income family in today’s market.
So, what are the options?
Families could boost their income, save for a larger down payment, look for more affordable homes, or consider government-backed loans like FHA, which offer more flexible debt-to-income limits.
Looking ahead, there are a few ways this affordability gap could shrink. Home prices would have to decline by around 20%, incomes would have to increase by about 22%, or interest rates could fall to somewhere between 4.00% and 4.50%. Realistically, it’ll probably take a mix of all three to bring the market back into balance. However, it will take time for the market to recover.
Home affordability is not a localized concern it’s a systemic issue affecting markets across the country. A recent analysis by Realtor.com revealed among the top 50 housing markets in the U.S., only three Pittsburgh, Detroit, and St. Louis meet the standard definition of affordability. Industry benchmarks suggest that housing costs should not exceed 30% of a household’s income. Yet even in these "affordable" markets, buyers are spending 27.4%, 29.8%, and 30% of their median income, respectively, to own a home. This data underscores a critical need for innovative solutions, policy reform, and strategic investment to restore balance and accessibility in our housing ecosystem.
As real estate professionals, appraisers, policymakers, and community leaders, we must recognize that the affordability crisis is not a temporary market fluctuation it’s a structural challenge that demands coordinated action. The data is clear: even in the most "affordable" markets, homeownership is stretching household budgets to their limits. If we are to build resilient communities and foster economic mobility, we need to rethink how we approach housing from zoning and financing to innovation in construction and public-private partnerships. The future of homeownership depends on our ability to lead with vision, advocate for change, and deliver solutions that make housing attainable for all.
There are many situations where consulting a real estate appraiser can make a difference. Whether you're preparing to list your property, purchasing a home, navigating estate planning, or dealing with legal matters like bankruptcy or a divorce, a professional appraisal provides clarity and confidence.
An accurate, unbiased valuation can be a powerful tool in making informed decisions. If you need support or have questions about how an appraisal can help in your situation, don’t hesitate to reach out.
Robert Baird
Regional Manger
robert.baird@opteonusa.com
813-503-2936
Data sourced from: Stellar MLS. (n.d.). Retrieved July 14, 2025, from https://www.stellarmls.com/
DISCLAIMER
This article is produced by Opteon AMC, Inc. It is intended to provide general information in summary form on appraisal related topics, current at the time of first publication. The contents do not constitute advice and should not be relied upon as such. Formal advice should be sought in particular matters. Opteon’s appraisers are qualified, experienced and certified to provide market value valuations of your property. Opteon does not provide accounting, specialist tax or financial advice.
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